Note: This is an edited transcript of a wide-ranging conversation I had with Bill in April 2013 over coffee in Hong Kong
Sony: This is Sony Kapoor of Re-Define talking to Bill White of BIS fame. He needs no further introduction. Bill, we are in this global situation where there is a huge amount debt in the system and central banks have flooded the system with money. At the same time, OECD countries are facing a structural slow-down of which the demographic time bomb is a part. They also have the highest levels of public and private debt. Simultaneously, power in global governance structures is starting to shift towards the East. Not to mention recent ructions in emerging markets.
Given that we are facing the triple challenge of the changes in governance, the structural break in growth rates, and unprecedented levels of credit and debt, particularly in OECD economies, how does the landscape look going forward? What is the best we can hope for?
Bill: To be honest, the landscape looks rather scary. Clearly, when you talk about this credit bubble we are at the end in the advanced markets, of a very long period of excessive credit creation. This has now crept over into the emerging markets as well. I think that in a certain way they have inherited it, through more or less the fixed exchange rate system, the imbalances of the advanced market economies; we have a global problem here. It is, however, most obvious in many of the advanced market economies.
So, we have a problem. Now the question is, what do we do to deal with the problem? I do not think that the quick fix, for example, the idea that you can use base money to expand government spending in a cost-less manner, or quantitative easing. I think these quick macro-fixes really are totally illusionary as a general solution. I believe that what we do have to focus on is the search for things that will actually work.