Private Equity

Norway's SWF - A risky strategy that locks in low returns

This piece is the latest salvo in my on-going public debate with Norway's Ministry of Finance, that lays out the investment strategy for its $750bn sovereign wealth fund, now the biggest in the world. It appears in today's Aftenposten in response to comments by the Deputy Minister of Finance in the same newspaper.  

Norway’s future is intimately linked to how well the GPF - its $750bn sovereign wealth fund, already 150% of GDP and rising - is run. Under the 4% spending rule, as much as 15% of all government spending already comes from the GPF. Hence, returns on GPF investments and the final size of the GPF are probably more important for Norway’s economy than any other single policy.  Yet, there is little scrutiny of the merits of the GPF’s investment strategy, which is deeply flawed.

Secretary Singsaas is correct to say that GPF strategy should be based on evidence and my report provides exactly the kind of analytical basis that is necessary to improve the present approach. She agrees that there is a financial case for the GPF to make more investments in the green economy and in developing countries, but suggests incremental actions that are too little too late. The central recommendations of my report are not addressed.