Re-thinking Development, Economics, Finance and Environment

 

Why Norway Must Go to the G-20?

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Kryss Nordsjøen igjen!

SONY KAPOOR

Aftenposten

Ifølge artikkelforfatteren bør kakefatet på neste måneds G20-møte utvides med ett flagg : det norske.

Økt legitimitet. Små økonomier er dårlig representert på G20-møtet i London i april. Det er bare én av flere gode grunner til at Norge burde vært invitert til å sitte rundt bordet.

Virkning i Norge. Vi er en liten og åpen økonomi. Selv utenom vår eksportorienterte olje- og gassektor og det internasjonalt investerte globale pensjonsfondet, er Norge sterkt integrert med den globale økonomien. Begivenheter rundt om i verden, både i den finansielle sektor og i realøkonomien, har stor virkning i Norge.

Større økonomier med mindre andel av utenrikshandel, slik som USA, er mer isolert fra internasjonale økonomiske betingelser og har større rom for å behandle økonomisk og finansiell ustabilitet når den oppstår. Legg merke til styrkingen av US-dollar og nedgangen i finansmarkedsrenten – samtidig som små økonomier slik som den svenske har sett sin valuta falle og lånerenten øke. Selv om den pågående krisen oppsto i USA, har Norges valuta likevel falt 20 prosent mot dollaren.

Betingelser for oljeprisen.

For Norge er betydningen av globale økonomiske betingelser for oljeprisen – en vesentlig del av nasjonalproduktet og eksporten – allerede velkjent. Den pågående krisen har vist den enda større betydningen forstyrrelsene i internasjonal finans kan ha på investeringene av pensjonsfondet, så vel som forholdene i vår hjemlige økonomi. Å ha oljefondet å støtte seg på i vanskelige tider gjør oss litt mer selvstendige, men fondet har sannsynligvis tapt 20 prosent eller mer av sin markedsverdi på grunn av den pågående finansuroen.

Norge har, sammen med andre små økonomier, en bedre støtte enn større og sterkere land i god økonomisk styring i form av lovbaserte rettferdige økonomiske systemer og stabilt, velregulert internasjonalt finansvesen.

Ikke god nok styring.

Krisen har rammet oss delvis fordi den internasjonale styringen ikke var god nok og det internasjonale finanssystemet ikke var velregulert og stabilt. Alvoret i, og omfanget av, den pågående krisen har vist dette klart, og har vist oss det påtrengende behovet for en forandring. Den nylig fornyede G20-gruppen, en noe ad-hoc gruppering av for det meste rike og voksende økonomier, har forpliktet seg til å frembringe denne forandringen. Intens lobbyvirksomhet fra Nederland og Spania, ingen av dem med i den opprinnelige gruppen, har gitt dem en plass ved bordet. De er nå med i G22-gruppen som skal møtes i London for å bestemme reglene for den globale økonomien og det globale finansvesenet.

Som den 23. største økonomien i verden er Norge neste land i køen, men er ikke blitt invitert – ennå! Norge har imidlertid en viktig rolle å spille. G20-gruppen, eller til og med en utvidet G30-gruppe, kan ikke hevde at de representerer alle land, men små økonomier, rike og fattige, er spesielt dårlig representert. Lille Norge har et utmerket ry og kan vise til en historikk med å fremme ryddig, rettferdig og lovbasert ledelse i nesten alle internasjonale sfærer. Videre har vi en lang praksis med å fremme internasjonal utvikling og interessene til mindre, fattige utviklingsland.

Stort formuefond.

Vi burde også bli invitert med som innehaver av et av de største selvstendige formuefondene i verden. G20-medlemmene Kina og Russland har også formuefond, men disse er både mindre og yngre. Uten innehavere av store formuefond vil ingen spesifikke ideer om finanssystemer og styringsreformer som disse landene måtte ha, være representert. Deres nærvær rundt bordet vil være spesielt savnet i en tid da et stabiliseringsfremmende langtidsperspektiv på formuefond og deres rolle som naturlige likviditetsbidragsytere, er ytterst kritisk.

Det er ytterligere tre grunner til at vi burde være ved det bordet neste måned.

For det første, Norges erfaring med bank- og eiendomsmarkedskrise på 90-tallet med eventuelt suksessrike løsninger, har paralleller til de nåværende internasjonale forsøkene på å stoppe den nedadgående økonomiske spiralen.

For det andre, etter å ha fått de riktige lærdommene på 90-tallet, har våre tøffere hjemlige regulerings- og overvåkingsrutiner virket bedre enn i mange andre land, til tross for det tilfeldige glippet i Terra-fiaskoen.

Til slutt synes den nordiske modellen med den usikkerhetsreduserende velferdsstaten, den tredelte sosiale pakten og blandingsøkonomi, å være tilbake på moten igjen. Vi har mye viktig lærdom å dele som andre land burde ta hensyn til.

Norge til bords.

Å ha Norge ved bordet vil sannsynligvis forbedre både legitimiteten og kvaliteten ved G20-diskusjonene. Som våre forfedre trenger vi å krysse Nordsjøen igjen, men det ville være fint å bli invitert denne gangen. Imidlertid, selv om London ikke kaller på Oslo, bør Oslo kalle på London.

 

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Whilst One, would have to be blind, not to see globalization in the system of trade, finance and government intercourse. The past has shown, the disadvantages, are becoming the safer option, when comparing the two -regional or global intercourse. Specifically in finance. The past has proven, that Global Finance and specifically, the Central Banking System (BIS), Exchanges and Governments, have allowed the very worst side of human nature to grow -the control of One's appetite, particularly, when money is involved.

The governments' have been complicit in the part they have played in the Global Finance System and its behavior. Having the system to transfer risk and damage across national boundaries, would be seen as dangerous to a child, so were are the adults. Securitizing every kind of debt in existance, for global trading markets, have helped to stimulate the Fraud, Greed and now, the To Big to Fail, perspectives, bringing the risk home to the tax payers. These above listed actors, now, guarantee this crisis is in its early stage -and will not end, until the whole system collapses.

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The last two years in particular, have destroyed both my view of super-national governance system or entity -and in particular, the system of global finance. Governments are lacking -sophistication, methodology and in particular, morality. This characteristic has become the rarest of all entities. We all know now what is happening, if only intuitively. These two groups of power have shown the world, who is in control. Do they think they can build a private world with money, this majesty, took billions of years not dollars, to build.

Very much would like to continue this discussion. You may recall we worked together prior to the shift and changes at Citibank. Great to reconnect and get an update from you!
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