Followers of Re-Define’s recent publicly available work on Greece will know that: 1) we thought Syriza’s election was good news both for Greece and for the EU 2) there would be a lot of noise and bluster, but that a compromise would eventually result, 3) the risk was always negligible and that of an “accidental” exit was zero, despite numbers such as 75% risk of Grexit pulled out of what can only be thin air by various “experts”, 4) Syriza deserved to, and probably would get a chance to, prove its mettle.
Mercifully, it appears that we have been right, at least so far. The Troika, as we knew it, is dead.
Now that a “deal” has been reached, what do we make of its terms? Is it, as many are saying, “total capitulation” by Greece? A mere “name changing, not game changing” exercise? Or, is it something more substantial? Most important, does it leave Greece and the Eurozone better off?
There is something to the accusation, as articulated by Manolis Glezos, a respected Syriza MEP best known for having torn down the swastika from the Acropolis in 1941, that all that has happened is that the new euphemism for the Troika is “institutions”. Syriza tried, but has failed so far, to get the OECD more deeply involved, particularly at the cost of the ECB and the European Commission. But more has changed than meets the eye. Syriza can only claim some of the credit for the changes.